Snelling’s first four 2025 outings look encouraging via stat page. Sure, he gave up a few long balls in his second outing, but production’s been great, including back-to-back FQOs:
The up-and-down pro career thus far is well documented. His first pro season saw him get to AA as a 19-year-old in the sink-or-swim Padres system. He swam his way to being named Baseball America’s Pitcher of the Year. 2024 was a mixed bag performance and a sink in dynasty value. Traded to Miami, he found some better results in seven outings:
Snelling is a tricky play. Once looking like an elite pitching prospect, others insist he’s a backend starter at best. I’m trying to refresh the page, so to speak. Let’s see what we have right now. Last night’s outing was successful, no doubt. As you’ll see, the three hits allowed weren’t particularly well earned by the hitters. The defense also stole a few hits from Knoxville. Snelling earned nine strikeouts; one was a freebie, and the others were well-deserved. Snelling wasn’t a whiff machine, but did earn a healthy 14 on the night. You’ll see him struggle to locate at the start, missing armside with everything. He earned strikes over the first 2.5 innings’ 39 pitches at a 51% clip. From there on out, he’d execute better, earning strikes at a 73% rate.
Note how Snelling would often come back with the same offering he missed. There’s intent to work going on here. This outing didn’t feel like a production over development exercise. In ways, that may be Snelling’s biggest bugaboo so far…he’s produced despite his rawness.
You’ll also see what’s either a great manipulation of breaking balls or a rampant inconsistency in shapes. I’ll bet on the latter. I generically labeled sliders, curves, slutters, slurves, whatever the attempts are, as “BB,” aka breaking balls. There are times it’s easy to tell what the intent was, and others, not so much. Snelling can deploy a harder breaking ball, all the way down to a traditional-looking low-80s curveball. There are some nasty, effective breakers. There are some head-scratchers. The feel for the change is a similar tale. It is April, though, and just one outing. Despite my attempts to have a clear mind, I can’t help but jive these inconsistencies with what I’ve gleaned in the past.
You’ll also see inconsistent mechanics/operations. Snelling can get head-whacky at times, seemingly more so when throwing secondaries. The torso can move differently, and the foot strike might find some inconsistencies. (The at-bat vs Nwogu at 3:48 sticks out.)
In a lot of ways, this is probably what you expect from a well-arsenaled 21-year-old in AA, and probably soon to be in AAA. Check that. You’d be thrilled. Snelling has gotten more physical, as kids turning into young men tend to do. He’s sturdy and proving the horses early in his career. We are being hyper-critical, and there’s much more to like than dislike. That’s how it goes when we’re trying to discern “elite” vs “nice” or “fine,” no?
The Padres challenged Snelling. The Padres like to grow trade chips. I’ve gathered the Padres like to let players go do their thing. Is Snelling always going to be messy? Probably. Does he have to be a technique poster child? No, but if he wants to find consistency, repeatability creates that. Are the Marlins gonna help clean some things up, perhaps instilling some prudence in Snellings’ ascension? Who knows? Are there ingredients here for a very productive MLB arm? Yes. Should we call him “elite?” No. He still feels half frozen in the oven.
Dynasty-wise, Snelling isn’t my favorite cup of tea, but he is still a great play. And even though he isn’t a personal favorite, at the moment, there might be a good buying opportunity. If a 21-year-old JUCO guy just showing up in full-season, doing what Snelling has done over these four outings.…folks would be getting silly with it. Are the fish going to let this marinate? Will marinade change this flavor or is this as cooked as it gets? Any answers are just guesses/hope/haterade.