The problem with small samples is every professional pitcher has the capability of being freaking good. Two of the greatest MiLB starting pitcher performances over the last five years were by Darius Vines and Bryce Jarvis. MLB arms, but not the rotation pieces they looked like on those days. It’s not if you can perform at a high level, it’s if you can consistently do it, over and over and over. Looking at game logs might help us get a sense. There’s a big difference between a 3.50 ERA pitcher who puts up zeros 50% of the time while giving up 7 the other 50%, and the arm giving up two runs every outing. The former is only giving his team a good shot to win half the time, while the latter gives his team a shot every time.
Three full-season pitchers have done the following in 100% of their outings this year (min. 3 events). H/PA less than .250. K% of 20% or more, BB% of 8.5% or less, not given up more than one home run, thrown strikes 62% or better, and had a game ERA 3 or under; Pierson Ohl (but one was an FSL rehab GS), 27-year-old AAer, Adam Laskey, and a Met’s arm I strongly considered this offseason; 21-year-old Joel Diaz (1%).
Diaz was a higher dollar sign of the 2021 IFA class. Those types are easily forgotten in the dynasty world. In addition, 2023 was lost to TJ recovery. Here’s what he’s done as a pro:
2024 Diaz reviews were interesting enough, but lacked excitement. 2025 Diaz has won me over. And yes his production has been fantastic, but it’s the video sucking me in. Sometimes the production doesn’t lie. Diaz has a different look about him these days. Here’s how Savant tracked his pitch mix last season, followed by the mix this outing:
Diaz’s 4/23 outing offers broadcast velocities. Not much has changed there for Diaz. Diaz’s game isn’t about velocity, it’s more about movement. Maybe the slider, or what I labeled a “slutter,” is a little firmer this year. I labeled the other breaker “slurve,” which Savant calls a curveball. Diaz calls one of them “El Yo-yo,” but I’m not sure which, probably the slutter. I suspect the cutters in Savant’s sample were sliders/slutters. Check out El Yo-yo:
All but the seven four-seamers look like little beasts with tails, running off this way and that. And is that a kick change I spy? Diaz’s 2024 changeup was not this. The real awe is how consistently he’s been earning strikes and staying efficient pitching this way. You don’t see that often in the lowers, or at least I haven’t. It helps the primary breaker is more of a slutter than some wildly sweeping Edinson Batista-esque breaker (that has never been harnessed). And it isn’t that Diaz is perfect at all. He often missed his spots by a good amount, but he missed them well. There are inconsistencies in shape (and speculating, speed), but is that intentional? This was the second time Wilmington saw Diaz, and they still couldn’t do much with him.
It’s fair to wonder about the quality of that four-seamer. Will it be a good enough running mate/keep ’em honest tool? Diaz has thrown harder in the past. Maybe he just doesn’t need to right now, or maybe that’s part of the key to being consistent? Regardless, if Diaz is consistently this guy.…giddy up. All the caveats apply about a developing young arm in the lowers, but Diaz makes me wanna make room for him somewhere, in some of my dynasty leagues.