Wenninger was my co-host’s Met pick for this season (episode 42), and he is off to a great 2025, production-wise. This hot start has him a buzzy name in the deeper dynasty world, with a Fantrax% on the rise. Thursday night produced another good-looking box score:
When The Rook threw him out there, I had my reservations (based on 2024 looks.) Wenninger Stans might not like this, but I still hold the same opinion, perhaps with a couple more sprinkles of doubt.
Wenninger threw 46 of his 76 pitches for strikes (61%), with his fair share of non-competitive pitches, of which all his offerings were guilty. Keeping it real though, this outing’s zone was tiny at times, and he got robbed of too many strikes. Regardless, Wenninger is more of a strike thrower than an execution guy. His game on the edges is not MLB quality at this juncture, and far too many of his strikes are earned over the heart of the plate. His locations are not great. The split-changeup is his best pitch. When he buries it out of the zone, it looks nasty and gives this lineup fits. But he did miss up with it more than you want to see. This was the case when he gave up this homerun to Luis Verdugo:
He had Verdugo with two strikes, deployed his only whiff pitch, and yeah. The changeup itself can look quite devastating despite some inconsistencies. Of his nine whiffs on the night, the changeup earned seven of them. The other two were via a four-seam fastball and a two-seam fastball. The only velocity shared was a sinker that came in at 93. Wenninger threw more secondaries than fastballs. Perhaps that’s a developmental thing or how he operates, I’m unsure. Overall, the fastball game seemed fine to below average. This version of Wenninger isn’t going to be blowing up MLB lineups with his fastball. The problem, though, is that his breaking ball game isn’t MLB quality, in terms of both execution and pitch quality. Those two meaty sliders from the HR AB were just a few on the night. Here are all the sliders he threw, plus a curveball, and a good split-change to highlight its nastiness and not be a total Debbie Downer:
Slide some MLB hitters in those boxes, and that is launch city. Why were Reading hitters taking so many of those? Maybe there is some unseeable quality to it, data can pick up, but I doubt it. This look was consistent with my few 2024 looks. I am not objecting to Wenninger’s success or standing as a fine pitching prospect working on rounding out his form, with plenty of likeable assets. Pitching development is quite fluid, and we’re criticizing one outing, but I object that he should be a hot-button “pop-up” pitching speculation darling. We’re trying to measure these guys’ games against the big dogs. This isn’t it. Right now, at least. These box scores might be misleading dynasty owners hoping to be quick to the breakout punch.