Baez threw 55 of 87 pitches for strikes (63%) with 12 whiffs; nine with the slider, two with the changeup, and one with the fastball. Banger outing for my 2025 Padres arm, right? Not so fast. This is a prime example of how a pretty box score can tell a misleading tale. This wasn’t dominating.
Baez is interesting from a dynasty perspective in that he’s only 22 years old, in AA, and on the 40-man whilst having a minuscule 1% interest on Fantrax. Not typical. Why the lack of interest? It makes a lot of sense in some ways, but in others, not so much.
2024 saw Baez awarded Padres MiLB pitcher of the year. A nine-start introduction to AA saw a significant drop in K production, which probably plays into dynasty minds. The Ks have come this early 2025 campaign, and those K and BB numbers are set to attract attention if they hold up. There are definitely things to like with Baez, namely the innings he’s proving, his age, and 40-man status. But Baez encapsulates the Padres’ pitching development for me. Watching their arms ascend through the system over the last several years, it’s safe to say their developmental innings dished out don’t look the same as other organizations. No shade thrown on their philosophy at all. They have used their farm to supplement their MLB roster fantastically. But our game is mudding, and we have different goals.
In short, the Padres seem to plug and play much more than others. Challenge the arms, often with aggressive assignments and let them do their thing. From my vantage point, this looks like arms doing the same thing year to year. Adam Mazur is a prime example. Very little changed with his game while with the Padres. Snelling might be a bit of the same story too. You will see some of their arms show up the following season with a little sharper-looking tools, but in terms of how they pitch, nothing changes, and the attacks are often basic, filled with grooved strikes. The art of sequencing and locating doesn’t seem to be a course they offer to their pupils. Or at least with the arms I’ve paid attention to. And some of those, like Mazur, I watched religiously.
From my 2024 Baez looks to now, you can file him under the same category. The fastball might be a smidge firmer. The breaking ball may be more consistent with a few notches more pace, and the stuff might last longer. But otherwise, this looks a lot like 2024 Baez. The arsenal is simple: a fastball comfortably sitting 94/95 and holding up well through 80-some pitches, a curveball he does an excellent job of rarely elevating, and a changeup he surprises with later, mostly to lefties, occasionally throwing one right on right. It’s a 2024 arsenal with a touch more teeth. The arsenal gets vanilla reviews, 50s-across-the-board-type. I wonder, though, Baez offers up the same pitch over and over, and folks can’t seem to square it up. Soft contact has been a big part of his story, as the plus-50 GB%s signal. But that might say more about the hitters than Baez. This outing might scream that. Corpus is not a AA caliber lineup at this time. They have scored almost 30 runs less than the next lowest total in the league. The 2024 attack felt fairly basic, much like this outing. Yet, we also have to credit Baez for not over-complicating things. If a hitter seems he doesn’t want an offering or can’t handle it, and you’re getting results…throw it again! I think the video backs me up:
Some very short ABs there, which is often a requirement for going 7. Baez isn’t shy to pitch to contact. I find that a feature of his game, not a knock. Execution-wise, he wasn’t perfect, but pretty good after the first at bat or so. There are smatterings of non-competitive offerings and balls in the dirt, but staying out of the middle with the curveball, he was great.
Being a big Mazur hopeful post-draft, it was frustrating watching him have the same outing, over and over, with mixed results and never really adjusting anything. That’s at the forefront of my Baez takeaway. With nice height, whippy and athletic (notice his good defense), arm talent…we don’t want to try and add some decorations to all this? Try a fourth pitch? Try some different sequencing/attacks? Mix locations up a little more, etc.? Feels like he might need that to find sustained MLB success.
Dynasty-wise, Baez could take a jump in popularity. He keeps rocking a 30ish K% and not walking anyone, that will probably happen. In a truer sense, it’s not that appealing, not instilling the trust this turns into an MLB SP capable of sustaining. If the Padres MO here is to try and gain some trade collateral, and he gets shipped, I’m instantly perked. Adding some wrinkles here could go a long way, depending on the landing spot, of course. The White Sox feel like a potential trade partner, given that history.