My friend Chris Clegg shared some data metrics on Pirates’ young slugger Axiel Plaz that got me thinking, and sent me into my deepest video-making project. Here are Plaz’s first 248 swings of 2025. Stick around for some thoughts afterwards, if you like, as a defense of the Young, Aggressive Hitter. Mr. Plaz’s season, and how some data metrics might not be measuring them well will follow:
A massive load of things to unpack there, but we’ll try and keep it snappy. Off the top, and one you didn’t need video to observe, is the improvement in K rate. Down 11%, it’s an encouraging development. One a skeptic would note the aggressive approach and how one cannot strikeout if they don’t get to two strikes. Plaz is quite aggressive. If you’ve listened to the podcast, you know The Rook and I have different opinions about hitters who don’t walk much. Young, aggressive hitters get my attention, and Plaz might be a bit of a poster child in some regards. Not striking out because you don’t get to two strikes…might be a bit hyperbolic, but it also might be an addition to, or positive byproduct of a sound approach at the plate that ironically gets deemed a poor, or non-approach when looking at some metrics. Clegg and others, responsibly so, hold skepticism with Plaz’s profile because of contact and out-of-zone numbers. But there are things those numbers don’t consider. Did that look like a guy struggling or hacking his way along to lucky outcomes? Not to me. There seems to be an ever-growing concept amongst pitchers of winning the first pitch of an at-bat (even more sophisticated, win the first three pitches). Aggressive hitters essentially say bring it on. Not happening on my watch. Plaz is winning the first three pitches of at-bats, particularly the first pitch, at an insane rate right now. We’ll get to that.
Why be so “anxious,” swinging at so much first offering when you can sit back and be more selective? Maybe get something better you can do damage to? Seems logical. Aram Leighton recently interviewed Max Clark on his podcast The Call Up, and Clark spoke on how selectivity is a big part of his plan. Can’t argue against him, it’s working very well…for him. No objections here. Clark is heady, talented, and succeeding. But what Mr. Plaz here exudes is a rebuke of the notion that aggressive hitters don’t have an “approach” or are being shallow, near-sighted, selfish, rally-killing, smooth brainers.
There is wisdom in being aggressive. Avoiding Ks, like we noted, is just one. Clark notes his selectivity comes from knowing he can’t do much with certain pitches. My curiosity and affinity to watching aggressive hitters revolves around the question, “How does one know they can’t do damage on particular pitches if they’ve never tried? Aggressive hitters like Plaz might be fixing to find out. Some have, to a much further along sense than Plaz, like Ezequiel Tovar, Corey Seager, Teoscar Hernandez, Nolan Arenado, to name some aggressive hitters (who are not all the same kind of aggressive). The greatest hitters in baseball give pitchers no “safe zones.” They are capable of doing damage on good pitches, bad pitches, fast pitches, slow pitches, movement, in and out of the zone. Teoscar Hernandez taking a 99 mph fastball at the edge of the shadow zone yard like he did against Shane Baz a few years back comes to mind. There’s no safe haven for pitchers. They do not get to win the zone. Plaz showed elements of this skill set that might not be fit for Max Clark or the heuristic set forth by what data defines as good swing decisions and the like.
Here’s what Plaz did in the shadow zones:
Swings in the shadows had a .488 BABIP, but you have the video to determine how much “luck” was involved. In my opinion, it wasn’t chock-full of luck, namely how luck has nothing to do with the ability to hit the snot out of the ball and increase your chances of getting a hit with every mph of EV. Note in the video, especially early on, how Plaz covers the outside of the zone, daring pitchers to come inside (and they rarely ever do), often swinging at pitches out of the zone and hitting them very hard. These looks make me wanna throw out in-and-out of the zone metrics with Plaz, or at least dismiss them as a huge telling sign. A one-size-fits-all generated “good swing decision”/strike zone doesn’t measure everyone well, just the mean. Which is a bit ironic, no? Aren’t we seeking hitters capable of doing things outside those constraints?
Swings in the shadows, FWIW:
He did more “damage” in the shadows than the heart (.361 BABIP):
Plaz’s whiff rate on the season is 29%, which is a touch higher than the 25% or less you probably want to see, but how much does whiffing with zero or one strikes matter, especially when you can hit the ball as hard as he does? Two strikes is when it really matters. Here’s what Plaz did with two strikes:
That’s an acceptable whiff rate, even more so considering Plaz isn’t gearing down a lot. An avg. EV of 89.5 is at or above MLB average, and he hit half his home runs on two strikes. Something you don’t get in the video are his takes. Plaz exudes a good eye, passing on plenty of pitches just outside the zone with two strikes. And with 7 swings on 43 pitches in the chase or waste zones, and video looks illustrating nice control at the plate, suggesting Plaz has a chase problem feels quite unwarranted. Of course, there are times he gets fooled/doesn’t see it well, like when three straight of the same pitch got him whiffing three times, and the like. That happens, and happens significantly more with other teenagers in A ball. But those instances came up against quality offerings, even though the name recognition isn’t there with the Highfills, Elissalts, Cates, Ohls, and Petri’s of the world. That’s where the video comes helps. You can see that for yourself. Also noteworthy are the adjustments he made with some of these arms, at times turning around and doing damage the next time he saw them or even later in the at-bat. Gilberto Batista seemed the only guy who rebounded from getting got the next battle, but even then, the first round was a sabotaged, first pitch HR, so the battle never really got going, AND Plaz even eked out a lucky weak single in round two. Speaking of first pitch, admittedly burying the lead:
So now, why in the world would you want to tell this young man to sit back and be more selective? His selection is to attack when it’s the most prime time, nothing to lose, own the at bat, 0–0. Of course, not everyone can do this, but he is so far. An elevated whiff rate is completely irrelevant. Well Nate, maybe he could do even better, seeing one first and then ramping it up over the next two pitches. OK crazy man. Here’s him after seeing or swinging at one:
Here’s 2–0:
0–2 can’t be parsed out correctly, but since we are here, this is all 0–2 counts (great job not getting there often):
End of the day, there is no reason to tell Axiel Plaz, nor want to tell him to be more “selective,” at least at this juncture of his career. Be damned how it might look in whatever data. But what about being more selective with pitch types, you might ask, and didn’t watch the video:
In the shadows:
Sure, there were times high heat got him and stuff moving away from him, particularly more vertically dropping stuff, but nothing suggests a chronic issue. That’s par for the course. He exuded no concern velocity will trouble him more than anyone else. Even better, if you watch closely, he shows some ability to alter his swing (while swinging hard) when he was geared up for what he didn’t get in the north/south and pace senses. There is a higher groundball rate here, 47%, than you want to see in a potential slugger, but it’s my inclination it doesn’t stem from a debilitating technique. If you watched, you’ll see Plaz gradually hit the ball in the air more as the season progresses. Is he the most geared up he can be for flyballs? I don’t think our one open face illustrates that, but he may be one in which being on time with his swing will matter more. He seemed to be doing such down the stretch of the video. And if groundballs do come more than we’d like, chances are they will be hard and more likely to gain batting average points.
There are bat skills here, on a relative scale to bat speed or not, that are not run-of-the-mill. There’s a foundation of ability capable of being special, an outlier, whatever moniker you want to use. Elite? Elite slugger? Obviously a low probability dream, but one Plaz is as capable as any peer. The fun part is Plaz is fixing to find out, maximizing his reps, and it’s potentially quite simple for us to measure. His basic surface stats are going to speak more truth to me than others. Is he pulling it off or not? Maybe we overthink young sluggers too much? Plaz will find out if he’s one of the rare and hard to grow into freaks that can damage darn near everything, doing so without sabotaging himself. We aren’t good at predicting future MLB sluggers.
All prospect caveats applied. The mental library of high-level pitches needs to grow, and his ultra-aggressiveness could meet its match, yadda yadda yadda. And there are defensive questions and all that. But in a pure slugging sense, Plaz is an elite teenage play for our dynasty dreams generic data isn’t going to give you a great reading of. Perhaps our marathon look here did? At the very least, it’s fun to watch a young hitter put himself to the test, getting on with it, nose to the grindstone, no beating around the bush, setting limits, not manipulating production doing nothing in the way of bettering future outcomings or testing oneself, but rather, simply forcing the issue, owning the zone, making it happen while trying to grow into a pitcher’s worse nightmare. Line him up however you will amongst other potential dynasty plays, but in the bucket of very young wannabe MLB sluggers, put Plaz on top or near the top of the list for me. What else do you want to see from a 19 yo trying to be this kind of hitter?
Notes: Plaz’s first three games of the season were not broadcast, thus swings from those games not included in video, but in Savant samples
Plaz averaged 3.5 pitches a PA. The MLB average is around 5. Constructing a whole lineup of aggressive hitters is a different matter from assessing one player’s approach.
Initially, I wondered if Plaz fouled off an excessive amount of pitches, perhaps chipping away some at the notion a hitter like this doesn’t do his part wearing the pither down, or that it might speak on his contact ability/inability. He fouled off around 20%, which is the MLB average.