Let’s have some fun and do things a little backwards. Let’s think more historically than predictively, while letting data tell us where to put our eyes. Digging around Savant’s FSL sample, looking for the most productive April pitches, names I hadn’t gotten eyes on popped. Something to find here? Stuff+ models are popular and useful, but don’t always reflect a pitch’s production well. I just wanted to know what pitches were getting the most work done, wanting to know how they work with the rest of the arsenal. A pitch’s friend(s) can have a lot to do with its production. All six arms highlighted here are rostered in 0% of Fantrax leagues. All six of these pitches were arguably (or clearly) the most productive in their category when paired with non‑0%ers. Some produced more than some pretty boy’s lauded offerings in the category. We have muddy four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup trophies to award. Six pitches from six different names, all of them the most or second-most used pitch in the arsenal:
Braden Davis, StL, Changeup
The Cardinals’ 2024 5th rounder had a rocky intro to pro ball this April, struggling with strikes, but he put together his best performance as this piece was being put together (4/30.)
Davis employs a sinker most (41%), with the change played at a 21% clip. The 81 mph offering earned strikes at a 60% rate, had a 52.6% WHIFF, 36% CSW, and 67% GB rate. Hitters went .222 against it with the average EV a putrid 81.5 mph. Here’s back-to-back strikeouts during his 4/12 outing, whereupon he deploys the changeup seven times, earning six whiffs:
No need to rush to the waiver wire here, as there’s plenty of polish needed. A changeup dominating A‑ball can be precarious, but Davis might have a fine weapon developing here. Not to mention several other offerings looking the part…if he can harness. All these sample sizes are tiny. Here, it was 75 changeups thrown. Production probably measures a changeup better than other offerings. They are hard to measure outside of how well they work.
Cole Peschl, Min, Slider
The 2024 14th-rounder’s pro career is just underway. He’s put up 14 scoreless. Savant is fantastic, but it isn’t perfect at identifying pitches. This caveat will apply throughout our looks here, and when dealing with such a small sample size, a tweak or two could turn things. All that aside, this is about getting our eyes to look in places we may not have thought to. Peschi’s slider has been his most-used pitch, but his arsenal is really a three to four-headed monster. There’s a four-seam, a cutter, a curveball that gets thrown out almost as often as the slider’s 23%. A slider/cutter/curve game can get murky-looking and misidentified, but Peschl strikes me as a bit of a spin master, manipulating with intent and playing said offerings well off each other. In my looks, I think Savant did well labelling. The attack is a couple of these, a couple of those, and then the slider comes out for a putaway try. At least vs lefties. He may hammer on it more vs righties. He’s thrown the 83 mph breaker 51 times over his three appearances, with a 70% whiff rate. A 49% CSW, .063 BAA, and 93.5 EV vs takes home the muddy prize. Here you’ll see him during his 4/25 outing finishing off Eduardo Tait with it. The second AB is an example of the attack I mentioned, using the slider at the end. The following AB he uses two whiffs off it to earn a K:
Peschl has my attention. The Twins seem to pluck good college arms on day three of the draft. This three-speed breaking ball game he plays could work well. I wouldn’t be surprised if Peschl’s arsenal doesn’t get rave stuff+ reviews individually, but the play off each other might be the meat and potatoes here. Peschl throws a lot of junk. Nothing seems too be straight. It’s not an act a lot can pull off, but he’s off to a great start.
Zack Tukis, Phi, Cutter
Ironically, our cutter winner was opposite Peschl 4/25/25. The Phillies signed Tukis out of Millersville College in PA. Tukis has only 8 pro IP thus far, and it hasn’t gone particularly well. The tools aren’t the problem, he’s not getting hit, the carpenter can’t reel it in yet.
The bar was lowest in this category. There weren’t a lot of cutters popping off the filters, but Tukis’ attack has a sinker thrown most, at 35%, then this cutter at 30%, a slider at 21%, and then a hard four-seamer he appears to have a real hard time harnessing in my looks. The cut’s been thrown 50 times, earning strikes at a 70% clip, averaging 90 mph, a 28% whiff, 34% CSW, .125 BAA, and the lowest EV vs of our winners, at just 75.2 mph. As you’ll see, some cutters and sliders blending is on the table. But there is a distinct 5 mph-ish difference in the Statcast sampling. The slider performed better in the metrics weighed, other than strike earning. Here you will see the slider and cutter played off each other to both handed hitters. First AB, the slider sets the path for the firmer cutter. Second AB, they swap roles:
There is lively stuff coming from a big body here. The Phillies can help guys along well. With such a small sample size of looks and priors here, it might be too quick to categorize Tukis. Interesting name to know at least.
Eliazer Dishmey, Mia, Curveball
Dishmey has gotten some dynasty attention, debuting in A‑ball last year as a teenager. Not shocked to see he’s grown as a pitcher since my look last season.
A little surprised Dishmey is at 0%, but his curveball takes the prize this month. Dishmey mixes it up and sews the curve in more than our video here is going to illustrate. Still his second most deployed pitch (24%), Dishmey is a mix and matcher. The sinker is his most-used offering at 25%, per Savant. Dishmey’s last outing, he put the curve in his back pocket. Feel to locate/consistency might be an issue with this pitch. More of a slurve than traditional curve, it averaged 77 mph, was thrown 50 times, 62% strikes (lots of swords outside the zone). It’s a chase pitch also earning (unintentional?) strikes up in the zone. FSL hitters struggled to square it up. With a .000 BAA, 55.6% whiff, and 85.1 mph EV against. It was a bit of a struggle to find a good look in the archives, but here’s the best I found:
Dishmey might be a slick developmental play in a large fantasy league. With a budding kitchen sink arsenal, size, and some advanced acumen for a young guy, it’s not hard to see success coming. Several turns of the screw and Dishmey could go Dude.
Hayden Minton, Det, Sinker
Alright. Bust out your salt shakers here, this is where things get blurry with Savant. Minton gets labeled as throwing a sinker and a four-seamer, and you will spot the catcher calling for a sinker occasionally, but the two pitches blur, both in the computer and in the eyes. Further mucking up the water, there are attempts at a changeup labeled fastball or cutter. If these are two/three separate tries, and the difference isn’t very distinct to the eyes or computer, they probably aren’t to the hitter either. We’re going to give Minton the sinker title anyway because it showed better than most in our filters, and the offerings labeled otherwise showed as well as any in their categories. Plus, Minton is off to a great start production-wise, and I wanted to take a look.
Savant’s labeled sinkers mustered a groundball rate of just 33.5%. Yet, flyball BAA is .000 (there were flyball hits vs “4FB”). The average EV vs was 86.7 mph. Better served to generally think of our look here as “Minton’s fastball game.” The fastball is the blue collar anchor, 49% (plus 19% “four-seam”) usage with the curve as the main secondary, says Savant, a change sewn in to both handed hitters. A 21.2% whiff rate (41.4% “4FB”) for a pitch doing this much lifting isn’t so bad. Take some usage% away for mislabeled changeups. With a 30% CSW (40.4% “4FB”) and .188 BAA (.167) over 171 offerings, Minton’s 91–95, averaging 93 mph offering takes the mud. Here are his six strikeouts from 4/27:
So our Minton sinker look has turned into a Minton Changeup look :). Check the notion that the curveball is his most-used secondary. Minton’s change could have very well beaten out Davis, but Minton’s fastball sets the tone. Minton has room to grow as a pitch-maker. He was more “effectively missing” than hitting spots in my looks. Minton starting in A‑ball seems more a logjam issue than a reflection of his game. I doubt the fastball here gets a ringing endorsement in stuff+ models, but it produced results at a very high clip and boosted secondary production, which was all very very good. Is Minton interesting in dynasty sense? Not really, but he might not be too far from it.
Jason Savacool, Stl, Four-seam Fastball
The same caveats apply with Savacool’s fastball labelings as with Minton’s. Savacool is definitely a spin guy, using the fastball to set up spin to earn whiffs or weak contact, but production-wise, he got a lot out of the fastball game this month. The whiff% for a 91 mph offering is very high comparatively, highlighting the way a lesser offering might overproduce thanks to their friends. Savacool’s velocity was more 93/94 early in my looks, tailing off as things went. With a labeled sample size of 74 (+65 “SI”), the fastball game is still secondary to breaker use. The “4FB” earned a 37.8% CSW, .133 BAA, 88.7 avg EV vs, and 64% strikes. It’s a tool used to pump up the frisbees. Here are the ABs he earned the four whiffs on the day from fastballs, the last one a sinker, 4/11:
Fastball not quite as impressive on the video as the metrics, huh? Credit to Savacool for producing as well as he does with it, though. Paired with his frisbee game, it plays well. At least in the FSL. Here’s what the 2023 6th rounder has done in his pro career thus far:
Savacool’s game doesn’t get my dynasty gieger counter going at this juncture. Here’s our six winners side by side:
*Tukis UDFA, not Indy ball
Did our fun here find some gold here? Probably not. Just because I imagine someone thinking or asking, I’d go Dishmey/Peschl/Tukis/Minton/Davis/Savacool, most to least optimistic. This exercise showed me how small sample sizes, level of competition, shortcomings in data collection, and overall lack of context can make some data and stats misleading. Furthermore, what’s great about Stuff+ type models and other pitch metrics. I’d say Dishmey, Peschl, Tukis, and Davis’s offerings signaled something real here. Minton and Savacool, not so much.